» run C:\Work\oebgas\Specification\DR_TC; ******************************************************************************** Date: 8/31/07 **** STANDARD SUR ESTIMATION RESULTS **** Time: 16:10:07 OUTPUT FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\results\out DATA FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\oebgasCS.xls ******************************************************************************** DEFINITIONS OF OUTPUT VARIABLES: Y1 is number of customers. Y2 is weather adjusted residential & commerical deliveries Y3 is other delivieries DEFINITIONS OF BUSINESS CONDITION VARIABLES: Z1 is % of non-iron miles in Dx miles Z2 is Number of Electric Customers Z3 is Urban Core Dummy Model includes time trend. Time period used: 1994 through 2004 *************************************************************************** GAUSS Data Import Facility *************************************************************************** Begin import... Import completed Number of rows in input file: 413 Number of cases written to GAUSS data set: 412 Number of missing elements: 63 Number of variables written to GAUSS data set: 21 1 409 =============================================================================== LINEAR SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION 8/31/2007 4:10 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: C:\work\Oebgas\Temp_3.dat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIVISOR USING N IN EFFECT RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT ITER. # = 0 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.83848859 ITER. # = 1 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87836321 ITER. # = 2 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87866155 ITER. # = 3 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87866942 ITER. # = 4 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87866970 ITER. # = 5 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87866971 ITER. # = 6 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -14.87866971 ----------------------------------- Equation: 1 Dependent variable: C ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 316.532 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.969 Rbar-squared: 0.969 Residual SS: 9.656 Std error of est: 0.156 Durbin-Watson: 0.305 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 8.09998430 0.02740998 295.512 0.0000 WL 0.27399062 0.02125697 12.889 0.0000 WK 0.53854328 0.00719297 74.871 0.0000 Y1 0.69705852 0.04401660 15.836 0.0000 Y2 0.10424514 0.03408825 3.058 0.0024 Y3 0.06238929 0.02221964 2.808 0.0052 WLWL 0.06762728 0.19295385 0.350 0.7262 WLWK -0.08265039 0.01659182 -4.981 0.0000 WKWK 0.16184785 0.01686196 9.598 0.0000 Y1Y1 0.17087483 0.03738302 4.571 0.0000 Y2Y2 -0.29552516 0.04118393 -7.176 0.0000 Y3Y3 0.01357016 0.01401523 0.968 0.3335 WLY1 -0.02035733 0.01546179 -1.317 0.1887 WLY2 0.00079847 0.01419459 0.056 0.9552 WLY3 0.00842856 0.00511423 1.648 0.1002 WKY1 -0.04255115 0.01588139 -2.679 0.0077 WKY2 0.03406274 0.01459514 2.334 0.0201 WKY3 0.01173716 0.00528727 2.220 0.0270 Z1 -0.60908554 0.05436684 -11.203 0.0000 Z2 -0.00833280 0.00111359 -7.483 0.0000 Z3 0.04242301 0.01693988 2.504 0.0127 TREND -0.01119824 0.00262349 -4.268 0.0000 WLTREND -0.00818099 0.00413322 -1.979 0.0485 WKTREND 0.00564213 0.00121339 4.650 0.0000 ----------------------------------- Equation: 2 Dependent variable: SL ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 2.247 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.190 Rbar-squared: 0.206 Residual SS: 1.821 Std error of est: 0.068 Durbin-Watson: 0.407 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.27399062 0.02125697 12.889 0.0000 WL 0.06762728 0.19295385 0.350 0.7262 WK -0.08265039 0.01659182 -4.981 0.0000 Y1 -0.02035733 0.01546179 -1.317 0.1887 Y2 0.00079847 0.01419459 0.056 0.9552 Y3 0.00842856 0.00511423 1.648 0.1001 TREND -0.00818099 0.00413322 -1.979 0.0485 ----------------------------------- Equation: 3 Dependent variable: SK ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 2.617 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.243 Rbar-squared: 0.258 Residual SS: 1.983 Std error of est: 0.071 Durbin-Watson: 0.323 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.53854328 0.00719297 74.871 0.0000 WL -0.08265039 0.01659182 -4.981 0.0000 WK 0.16184785 0.01686196 9.598 0.0000 Y1 -0.04255115 0.01588139 -2.679 0.0077 Y2 0.03406274 0.01459514 2.334 0.0201 Y3 0.01173716 0.00528727 2.220 0.0270 TREND 0.00564213 0.00121339 4.650 0.0000 ----------------------------------- Equation: 4 Dependent variable: SM ----------------------------------- Valid cases: 396 Degrees of freedom: ---- Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.18746611 0.02110322 8.883 0.0000 WL 0.01502311 0.19167870 0.078 0.9376 WK -0.07919745 0.01524060 -5.196 0.0000 Y1 0.06290847 0.01478495 4.255 0.0000 Y2 -0.03486121 0.01356161 -2.571 0.0109 Y3 -0.02016572 0.00488722 -4.126 0.0001 -------------------------------------------------------------------- MEASURES OF GOODNESS-OF-FIT -------------------------------------------------------------------- AN UNCENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.982 A CENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.982 The results from the test of the null hypothesis that all slope coefficients in all equations are simultaneously equal to zero. Test statistic Prob > t ---------------------------------------- 1588.097 +DEN -------------------------------------------------------------------- VALIDATION OF REGULARITY CONDITIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- Monotonicity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which each of the following predicted cost share is nonpositive is listed below Labor Capital Materials 0 0 0 (0.00 %) (0.00 %) (0.00 %) Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of the observations for which the condition that the matrix of second order partial derivatives of the cost function with respect to input wages is negative semi-definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) Quasi-Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which the condition that the cost function is strictly quasi-concave in input prices holds: 396 (100.00 %) Second Order Condition for Cost Minimization The number of the observations for which the condition that the bordered Hessian is negative definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) OUT-OF-SAMPLE PREDICTION OF TOTAL COST LEVEL PERFORMANCE LAST 3 YEARS Actual Predicted Difference t_ratio p_value Utility 8.245 8.636 -0.392 -4.291 0.000 East Ohio Gas 6.618 6.928 -0.310 -3.339 0.000 North Shore Gas 9.646 9.953 -0.307 -2.866 0.002 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 6.189 6.430 -0.241 -2.508 0.006 Madison Gas & Electric 8.719 8.935 -0.216 -2.191 0.014 NICOR 7.669 7.877 -0.208 -2.248 0.012 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC 6.803 6.989 -0.186 -2.126 0.017 Louisville Gas and Electric 7.503 7.635 -0.132 -1.428 0.077 Wisconsin Gas 8.576 8.707 -0.131 -1.378 0.084 Consolidated Edison 7.213 7.339 -0.125 -1.348 0.089 Illinois Power 6.468 6.556 -0.089 -0.923 0.178 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 7.752 7.833 -0.081 -0.870 0.192 Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply) 7.770 7.839 -0.069 -0.737 0.231 BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO 8.424 8.474 -0.050 -0.525 0.300 Atlanta Gas Light 8.597 8.639 -0.042 -0.423 0.336 Peoples Gas Light 7.086 7.127 -0.040 -0.431 0.333 Rochester Gas and Electric 7.258 7.284 -0.026 -0.281 0.389 People's Natural Gas 7.163 7.164 -0.001 -0.015 0.494 COMMONWEALTH GAS 6.563 6.523 0.040 0.420 0.337 Wisconsin Power & Light 7.042 6.999 0.043 0.445 0.328 Connecticut Energy 7.834 7.791 0.044 0.467 0.320 Northwest Natural Gas 6.468 6.424 0.044 0.457 0.324 Orange & Rockland Utilities 7.673 7.619 0.054 0.560 0.288 new Jersey Natural Gas 8.510 8.438 0.072 0.769 0.221 Southwest Gas 7.010 6.914 0.096 0.944 0.173 Connecticut Natural Gas 8.844 8.747 0.097 1.023 0.153 Public Service Electric & Gas 7.716 7.615 0.102 1.087 0.139 Alabama Gas 8.556 8.438 0.118 1.240 0.108 Consumers Power 6.976 6.857 0.119 1.173 0.120 Cascade Natural Gas 7.955 7.782 0.172 1.854 0.032 Washington Natural Gas 6.039 5.789 0.250 2.468 0.007 Central Hudson Gas 7.373 7.091 0.283 3.128 0.001 Public Service of North Carolina 8.057 7.710 0.347 3.802 0.000 Niagra Mohawk 9.478 9.129 0.349 3.751 0.000 Pacific Gas & Electric 7.714 7.322 0.391 4.254 0.000 Peco (Philadelphia Electric) 8.465 7.959 0.506 5.766 0.000 Washington Gas Light RTS (sum of output elasticities) calculated at all data points sum yn yvrc yvoth utility 0.641 0.801 -0.230 0.070 ENBRIDGE 0.668 0.845 -0.251 0.074 NICOR 0.683 0.693 -0.064 0.054 Peoples Gas Light 0.714 0.819 -0.173 0.068 Consumers Power 0.717 0.809 -0.162 0.070 Public Service Electric & Gas 0.735 0.753 -0.085 0.067 East Ohio Gas 0.743 0.709 0.000 0.034 Washington Gas Light 0.758 0.722 -0.027 0.063 Consolidated Edison 0.782 0.749 -0.068 0.101 UNION GAS 0.791 0.626 0.101 0.064 Niagra Mohawk 0.795 0.965 -0.258 0.087 Pacific Gas & Electric 0.819 1.006 -0.278 0.091 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 0.857 0.811 -0.016 0.063 Atlanta Gas Light 0.858 0.684 0.123 0.050 Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply) 0.867 0.630 0.190 0.047 Washington Natural Gas 0.867 0.398 0.441 0.027 Connecticut Natural Gas 0.884 0.559 0.287 0.038 People's Natural Gas 0.892 0.591 0.254 0.047 Peco (Philadelphia Electric) 0.896 0.394 0.472 0.031 North Shore Gas 0.897 0.631 0.209 0.056 Wisconsin Gas 0.904 0.491 0.377 0.036 COMMONWEALTH GAS 0.906 0.567 0.303 0.037 new Jersey Natural Gas 0.908 0.648 0.210 0.050 BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO 0.912 0.517 0.360 0.035 Rochester Gas and Electric 0.940 0.422 0.477 0.041 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 0.941 0.581 0.311 0.049 Illinois Power 0.944 0.359 0.546 0.038 Orange & Rockland Utilities 0.947 0.784 0.100 0.063 Southwest Gas 0.956 0.611 0.286 0.059 Northwest Natural Gas 0.965 0.536 0.391 0.038 Louisville Gas and Electric 0.971 0.371 0.582 0.018 Madison Gas & Electric 0.985 0.421 0.530 0.035 Connecticut Energy 1.002 0.600 0.344 0.058 Alabama Gas 1.016 0.558 0.412 0.046 Public Service of North Carolina 1.029 0.420 0.569 0.039 Wisconsin Power & Light 1.061 0.434 0.561 0.066 Cascade Natural Gas 1.064 0.253 0.779 0.032 Central Hudson Gas 1.065 0.684 0.320 0.061 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC »