» run C:\Work\oebgas\Specification\DR_TC; ******************************************************************************** Date: 8/31/07 **** STANDARD SUR ESTIMATION RESULTS **** Time: 16:07:01 OUTPUT FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\results\out DATA FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\oebgas5.xls ******************************************************************************** DEFINITIONS OF OUTPUT VARIABLES: Y1 is number of customers. Y2 is weather adjusted residential & commerical deliveries Y3 is other delivieries DEFINITIONS OF BUSINESS CONDITION VARIABLES: Z1 is % of non-iron miles in Dx miles Z2 is Number of Electric Customers Z3 is Urban Core Dummy Model includes time trend. Time period used: 1994 through 2004 *************************************************************************** GAUSS Data Import Facility *************************************************************************** Begin import... Import completed Number of rows in input file: 413 Number of cases written to GAUSS data set: 412 Number of missing elements: 63 Number of variables written to GAUSS data set: 21 1 409 =============================================================================== LINEAR SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION 8/31/2007 4:07 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: C:\work\Oebgas\Temp_3.dat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIVISOR USING N IN EFFECT RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT ITER. # = 0 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.07726690 ITER. # = 1 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11387101 ITER. # = 2 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11417859 ITER. # = 3 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11418634 ITER. # = 4 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11418659 ITER. # = 5 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11418660 ITER. # = 6 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = -15.11418660 ----------------------------------- Equation: 1 Dependent variable: C ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 316.905 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.971 Rbar-squared: 0.970 Residual SS: 9.195 Std error of est: 0.152 Durbin-Watson: 0.303 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 8.15930715 0.02669576 305.641 0.0000 WL 0.25117202 0.02008446 12.506 0.0000 WK 0.57185028 0.00712666 80.241 0.0000 Y1 0.64647326 0.04289936 15.070 0.0000 Y2 0.15652898 0.03324091 4.709 0.0000 Y3 0.06776143 0.02165798 3.129 0.0019 WLWL 0.03019952 0.18110708 0.167 0.8677 WLWK -0.06506122 0.01686791 -3.857 0.0001 WKWK 0.15431853 0.01747587 8.830 0.0000 Y1Y1 0.15614263 0.03641646 4.288 0.0000 Y2Y2 -0.27659896 0.04011523 -6.895 0.0000 Y3Y3 0.01527058 0.01365529 1.118 0.2641 WLY1 -0.00564046 0.01478471 -0.382 0.7030 WLY2 -0.01309131 0.01358868 -0.963 0.3360 WLY3 0.00683601 0.00487198 1.403 0.1614 WKY1 -0.05916258 0.01551001 -3.814 0.0002 WKY2 0.05196239 0.01426865 3.642 0.0003 WKY3 0.01267151 0.00514416 2.463 0.0142 Z1 -0.58541029 0.05294690 -11.057 0.0000 Z2 -0.00826632 0.00108491 -7.619 0.0000 Z3 0.04221989 0.01649696 2.559 0.0109 TREND -0.00911713 0.00256454 -3.555 0.0004 WLTREND -0.00671587 0.00390919 -1.718 0.0866 WKTREND 0.00473124 0.00123348 3.836 0.0001 ----------------------------------- Equation: 2 Dependent variable: SL ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 1.940 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.148 Rbar-squared: 0.165 Residual SS: 1.653 Std error of est: 0.065 Durbin-Watson: 0.405 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.25117202 0.02008446 12.506 0.0000 WL 0.03019952 0.18110708 0.167 0.8677 WK -0.06506122 0.01686791 -3.857 0.0001 Y1 -0.00564046 0.01478471 -0.382 0.7030 Y2 -0.01309131 0.01358868 -0.963 0.3359 Y3 0.00683601 0.00487198 1.403 0.1613 TREND -0.00671587 0.00390919 -1.718 0.0866 ----------------------------------- Equation: 3 Dependent variable: SK ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 2.429 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.228 Rbar-squared: 0.243 Residual SS: 1.876 Std error of est: 0.069 Durbin-Watson: 0.327 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.57185028 0.00712666 80.241 0.0000 WL -0.06506122 0.01686791 -3.857 0.0001 WK 0.15431853 0.01747587 8.830 0.0000 Y1 -0.05916258 0.01551001 -3.814 0.0002 Y2 0.05196239 0.01426865 3.642 0.0003 Y3 0.01267151 0.00514416 2.463 0.0142 TREND 0.00473124 0.00123348 3.836 0.0001 ----------------------------------- Equation: 4 Dependent variable: SM ----------------------------------- Valid cases: 396 Degrees of freedom: ---- Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.17697770 0.01986353 8.910 0.0000 WL 0.03486170 0.17992471 0.194 0.8466 WK -0.08925731 0.01533513 -5.820 0.0000 Y1 0.06480305 0.01401352 4.624 0.0000 Y2 -0.03887108 0.01286792 -3.021 0.0029 Y3 -0.01950751 0.00461424 -4.228 0.0000 -------------------------------------------------------------------- MEASURES OF GOODNESS-OF-FIT -------------------------------------------------------------------- AN UNCENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.983 A CENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.983 The results from the test of the null hypothesis that all slope coefficients in all equations are simultaneously equal to zero. Test statistic Prob > t ---------------------------------------- 1603.947 0.0000 -------------------------------------------------------------------- VALIDATION OF REGULARITY CONDITIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- Monotonicity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which each of the following predicted cost share is nonpositive is listed below Labor Capital Materials 0 0 0 (0.00 %) (0.00 %) (0.00 %) Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of the observations for which the condition that the matrix of second order partial derivatives of the cost function with respect to input wages is negative semi-definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) Quasi-Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which the condition that the cost function is strictly quasi-concave in input prices holds: 396 (100.00 %) Second Order Condition for Cost Minimization The number of the observations for which the condition that the bordered Hessian is negative definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) OUT-OF-SAMPLE PREDICTION OF TOTAL COST LEVEL PERFORMANCE LAST 3 YEARS Actual Predicted Difference t_ratio p_value Utility 8.307 8.684 -0.378 -4.250 0.000 East Ohio Gas 6.674 6.983 -0.310 -3.431 0.000 North Shore Gas 9.711 9.999 -0.287 -2.748 0.003 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 6.233 6.485 -0.252 -2.682 0.004 Madison Gas & Electric 6.802 7.015 -0.213 -2.512 0.006 Louisville Gas and Electric 7.719 7.921 -0.203 -2.238 0.013 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC 8.819 8.999 -0.181 -1.875 0.031 NICOR 7.533 7.684 -0.151 -1.681 0.047 Wisconsin Gas 8.632 8.777 -0.146 -1.576 0.058 Consolidated Edison 7.322 7.384 -0.062 -0.684 0.247 Illinois Power 8.443 8.504 -0.061 -0.663 0.254 Atlanta Gas Light 7.828 7.882 -0.055 -0.600 0.274 Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply) 6.578 6.632 -0.054 -0.579 0.281 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 7.831 7.878 -0.047 -0.519 0.302 BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO 7.200 7.232 -0.032 -0.350 0.363 COMMONWEALTH GAS 8.674 8.692 -0.018 -0.183 0.427 Peoples Gas Light 7.179 7.185 -0.006 -0.067 0.473 Rochester Gas and Electric 7.353 7.346 0.006 0.071 0.472 People's Natural Gas 7.705 7.683 0.022 0.236 0.407 new Jersey Natural Gas 6.599 6.569 0.030 0.325 0.373 Wisconsin Power & Light 6.527 6.495 0.032 0.342 0.366 Orange & Rockland Utilities 7.096 7.052 0.044 0.461 0.322 Connecticut Energy 7.888 7.842 0.045 0.500 0.309 Northwest Natural Gas 8.521 8.456 0.065 0.702 0.241 Southwest Gas 8.895 8.828 0.067 0.725 0.234 Public Service Electric & Gas 7.711 7.636 0.074 0.813 0.208 Alabama Gas 7.072 6.972 0.100 1.005 0.157 Connecticut Natural Gas 7.028 6.919 0.109 1.104 0.135 Cascade Natural Gas 8.618 8.506 0.112 1.207 0.114 Consumers Power 7.978 7.842 0.136 1.498 0.067 Washington Natural Gas 6.084 5.857 0.227 2.301 0.011 Central Hudson Gas 7.372 7.110 0.262 2.960 0.002 Public Service of North Carolina 9.551 9.221 0.330 3.639 0.000 Pacific Gas & Electric 8.123 7.781 0.343 3.840 0.000 Niagra Mohawk 7.791 7.371 0.420 4.726 0.000 Peco (Philadelphia Electric) 8.511 8.023 0.489 5.688 0.000 Washington Gas Light RTS (sum of output elasticities) calculated at all data points sum yn yvrc yvoth utility 0.660 0.742 -0.156 0.075 ENBRIDGE 0.687 0.781 -0.176 0.081 NICOR 0.700 0.639 0.002 0.058 Peoples Gas Light 0.729 0.761 -0.107 0.075 Consumers Power 0.733 0.747 -0.091 0.077 Public Service Electric & Gas 0.750 0.695 -0.018 0.072 East Ohio Gas 0.752 0.659 0.057 0.036 Washington Gas Light 0.771 0.661 0.042 0.068 Consolidated Edison 0.800 0.693 -0.004 0.110 UNION GAS 0.804 0.581 0.154 0.069 Niagra Mohawk 0.805 0.891 -0.182 0.096 Pacific Gas & Electric 0.827 0.926 -0.199 0.100 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 0.863 0.757 0.038 0.068 Atlanta Gas Light 0.864 0.639 0.169 0.055 Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply) 0.872 0.584 0.237 0.051 Washington Natural Gas 0.874 0.371 0.474 0.028 Connecticut Natural Gas 0.888 0.522 0.326 0.040 People's Natural Gas 0.897 0.551 0.295 0.051 Peco (Philadelphia Electric) 0.902 0.367 0.503 0.032 North Shore Gas 0.902 0.589 0.252 0.061 Wisconsin Gas 0.908 0.457 0.412 0.038 COMMONWEALTH GAS 0.909 0.523 0.346 0.039 new Jersey Natural Gas 0.911 0.605 0.253 0.054 BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO 0.915 0.480 0.397 0.037 Rochester Gas and Electric 0.943 0.541 0.349 0.053 Illinois Power 0.945 0.399 0.502 0.044 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 0.948 0.733 0.146 0.069 Southwest Gas 0.949 0.335 0.573 0.040 Orange & Rockland Utilities 0.958 0.568 0.327 0.064 Northwest Natural Gas 0.964 0.504 0.420 0.040 Louisville Gas and Electric 0.971 0.351 0.601 0.018 Madison Gas & Electric 0.986 0.394 0.555 0.037 Connecticut Energy 1.002 0.559 0.380 0.062 Alabama Gas 1.013 0.527 0.438 0.049 Public Service of North Carolina 1.027 0.397 0.588 0.041 Wisconsin Power & Light 1.059 0.634 0.359 0.067 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC 1.062 0.404 0.586 0.071 Cascade Natural Gas 1.062 0.237 0.792 0.034 Central Hudson Gas »