*************************************************************************** GAUSS Data Export Facility *************************************************************************** Begin export... Export completed Number of cases in GAUSS data set: 409.000 Number of cases written to foreign file : 409.000 Number of variables written to foreign file : 44.000 ******************************************************************************** Date: 3/08/07 **** STANDARD SUR ESTIMATION RESULTS **** Time: 14:18:37 OUTPUT FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\results\TC5 DATA FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\oebgas5.xls ******************************************************************************** DEFINITIONS OF OUTPUT VARIABLES: Y1 is number of customers. Y2 is weather adjusted residential & commerical deliveries Y3 is other delivieries DEFINITIONS OF BUSINESS CONDITION VARIABLES: Z1 is % of non-iron miles in Dx miles Z2 is Number of Electric Customers Z3 is Urban Core Dummy Model includes time trend. Time period used: 1994 through 2004 *************************************************************************** GAUSS Data Import Facility *************************************************************************** Begin import... Import completed Number of rows in input file: 413 Number of cases written to GAUSS data set: 412 Number of missing elements: 66 Number of variables written to GAUSS data set: 22 1 409 =============================================================================== SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION WITH HETEROSKEDASTICITY 3/08/2007 2:18 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: C:\work\Oebgas\Temp_3.dat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DIVISOR USING N IN EFFECT RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT ITER. # = 0 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.84711596 ITER. # = 1 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78155964 ITER. # = 2 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78063692 ITER. # = 3 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059504 ITER. # = 4 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059198 ITER. # = 5 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059174 ITER. # = 6 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059172 ITER. # = 7 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059172 ITER. # = 8 LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA = 4.78059172 ----------------------------------- Equation: 1 Dependent variable: C ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 316.905 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.975 Rbar-squared: 0.975 Residual SS: 7.833 Std error of est: 2.231 Durbin-Watson: 0.322 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 8.17713166 0.02213756 369.378 0.0000 WL 0.22245241 0.01463572 15.199 0.0000 WK 0.56237237 0.00604645 93.009 0.0000 Y1 0.64493569 0.03687514 17.490 0.0000 Y2 0.13150071 0.03009283 4.370 0.0000 Y3 0.09459670 0.01984931 4.766 0.0000 WLWL -0.37172991 0.13011405 -2.857 0.0045 WLWK -0.09676812 0.01401568 -6.904 0.0000 WKWK 0.15783988 0.01342940 11.753 0.0000 Y1Y1 0.18742980 0.20031907 0.936 0.3500 Y2Y2 -0.56356577 0.17209503 -3.275 0.0012 Y3Y3 0.11776130 0.01987057 5.926 0.0000 WLY1 0.03208083 0.01156103 2.775 0.0058 WLY2 -0.05146387 0.01062612 -4.843 0.0000 WLY3 0.00889090 0.00391362 2.272 0.0237 WKY1 -0.10096767 0.01445383 -6.986 0.0000 WKY2 0.08148132 0.01369693 5.949 0.0000 WKY3 0.02400890 0.00402211 5.969 0.0000 Y1Y2 0.19085263 0.17480334 1.092 0.2756 Y1Y3 -0.21600365 0.05640460 -3.830 0.0001 Y2Y3 0.10633313 0.05035100 2.112 0.0353 Z1 -0.62724796 0.05309450 -11.814 0.0000 Z2 -0.00616864 0.00103307 -5.971 0.0000 Z3 0.04479722 0.01311577 3.416 0.0007 TREND -0.01057824 0.00211886 -4.992 0.0000 WLTREND 0.00113479 0.00280492 0.405 0.6860 WKTREND 0.00656897 0.00099356 6.612 0.0000 ----------------------------------- Equation: 2 Dependent variable: SL ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 1.940 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.067 Rbar-squared: 0.085 Residual SS: 1.810 Std error of est: 2.372 Durbin-Watson: 0.405 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.22245241 0.01463572 15.199 0.0000 WL -0.37172991 0.13011405 -2.857 0.0045 WK -0.09676812 0.01401568 -6.904 0.0000 Y1 0.03208083 0.01156103 2.775 0.0058 Y2 -0.05146387 0.01062612 -4.843 0.0000 Y3 0.00889090 0.00391362 2.272 0.0236 TREND 0.00113479 0.00280492 0.405 0.6860 ----------------------------------- Equation: 3 Dependent variable: SK ----------------------------------- Total cases: 396 Valid cases: 396 Total SS: 2.429 Degrees of freedom: ---- R-squared: 0.208 Rbar-squared: 0.223 Residual SS: 1.925 Std error of est: 2.969 Durbin-Watson: 0.340 Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.56237237 0.00604645 93.009 0.0000 WL -0.09676812 0.01401568 -6.904 0.0000 WK 0.15783988 0.01342940 11.753 0.0000 Y1 -0.10096767 0.01445383 -6.986 0.0000 Y2 0.08148132 0.01369693 5.949 0.0000 Y3 0.02400890 0.00402211 5.969 0.0000 TREND 0.00656897 0.00099356 6.612 0.0000 ----------------------------------- Equation: 4 Dependent variable: SM ----------------------------------- Valid cases: 396 Degrees of freedom: ---- Estimated Standard Prob Variable Coefficient Error t-ratio >|t| -------------------------------------------------------------------- CONST 0.21517521 0.01469923 14.639 0.0000 WL 0.46849803 0.13029004 3.596 0.0004 WK -0.06107176 0.01267022 -4.820 0.0000 Y1 0.06888684 0.01182496 5.826 0.0000 Y2 -0.03001744 0.01107008 -2.712 0.0073 Y3 -0.03289980 0.00348646 -9.436 0.0000 -------------------------------------------------------------------- MEASURES OF GOODNESS-OF-FIT -------------------------------------------------------------------- AN UNCENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.983 A CENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE 0.983 The results from the test of the null hypothesis that all slope coefficients in all equations are simultaneously equal to zero. Test statistic Prob > t ---------------------------------------- 1610.422 +DEN -------------------------------------------------------------------- VALIDATION OF REGULARITY CONDITIONS -------------------------------------------------------------------- Monotonicity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which each of the following predicted cost share is nonpositive is listed below Labor Capital Materials 0 0 0 (0.00 %) (0.00 %) (0.00 %) Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of the observations for which the condition that the matrix of second order partial derivatives of the cost function with respect to input wages is negative semi-definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) Quasi-Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function The number of observations for which the condition that the cost function is strictly quasi-concave in input prices holds: 396 (100.00 %) Second Order Condition for Cost Minimization The number of the observations for which the condition that the bordered Hessian is negative definite holds: 396 (100.00 %) OUT-OF-SAMPLE PREDICTION OF TOTAL COST LEVEL PERFORMANCE LAST 3 YEARS Actual Predicted Difference t_ratio p_value Utility 7.719 8.099 -0.380 -3.673 0.000 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELEC TRIC 7.028 7.341 -0.312 -2.908 0.002 Cascade Natural Gas 8.307 8.618 -0.311 -3.793 0.000 East Ohio Gas 6.233 6.475 -0.242 -2.787 0.003 Madison Gas & Electr ic 6.674 6.909 -0.236 -2.731 0.003 North Shore Gas 9.711 9.929 -0.218 -2.206 0.014 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 6.802 7.019 -0.216 -2.792 0.003 Louisville Gas and E lectric 7.533 7.698 -0.165 -2.004 0.023 Wisconsin Gas 8.632 8.785 -0.154 -1.784 0.037 Consolidated Edison 7.831 7.952 -0.122 -1.436 0.076 BALTIMORE GAS & ELEC TRIC CO 8.819 8.919 -0.100 -1.098 0.136 NICOR 7.322 7.395 -0.074 -0.880 0.189 Illinois Power 8.443 8.499 -0.056 -0.658 0.255 Atlanta Gas Light 7.828 7.883 -0.055 -0.658 0.255 Questar (Mountain Fu el Supply) 7.705 7.741 -0.035 -0.393 0.347 new Jersey Natural G as 6.578 6.604 -0.026 -0.306 0.380 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 7.096 7.121 -0.025 -0.284 0.388 Connecticut Energy 7.179 7.188 -0.009 -0.105 0.458 Rochester Gas and El ectric 7.200 7.200 0.000 0.006 0.498 COMMONWEALTH GAS 6.599 6.591 0.007 0.086 0.466 Wisconsin Power & Li ght 7.353 7.311 0.041 0.496 0.310 People's Natural Gas 8.895 8.835 0.060 0.704 0.241 Public Service Elect ric & Gas 7.888 7.803 0.085 1.012 0.156 Northwest Natural Ga s 7.711 7.618 0.093 1.093 0.137 Alabama Gas 6.527 6.432 0.095 1.109 0.134 Orange & Rockland Ut ilities 7.978 7.880 0.098 1.167 0.122 Washington Natural G as 8.674 8.558 0.117 1.288 0.099 Peoples Gas Light 8.521 8.404 0.117 1.387 0.083 Southwest Gas 8.618 8.489 0.128 1.504 0.066 Consumers Power 7.072 6.856 0.216 2.311 0.011 Connecticut Natural Gas 6.084 5.848 0.237 2.587 0.005 Central Hudson Gas 8.511 8.254 0.257 2.565 0.005 Washington Gas Light 9.551 9.268 0.283 3.377 0.000 Pacific Gas & Electr ic 7.372 7.068 0.304 3.793 0.000 Public Service of No rth Carolina 8.123 7.787 0.336 4.167 0.000 Niagra Mohawk 7.791 7.322 0.469 5.796 0.000 Peco (Philadelphia E lectric) RTS (sum of output elasticities) calculated at all data points sum yn yvrc yvoth utility 0.675 0.922 -0.354 0.106 ENBRIDGE 0.699 0.853 -0.289 0.134 NICOR 0.712 0.919 -0.268 0.061 Peoples Gas Light 0.739 0.835 -0.210 0.114 Consumers Power 0.743 0.832 -0.192 0.104 Public Service Electric & Gas 0.758 0.797 -0.141 0.102 East Ohio Gas 0.771 1.168 -0.275 -0.122 Washington Gas Light 0.780 0.824 -0.102 0.058 Consolidated Edison 0.790 0.255 0.146 0.389 UNION GAS 0.802 0.555 0.054 0.193 Niagra Mohawk 0.814 0.760 -0.059 0.113 Pacific Gas & Electric 0.837 0.781 -0.030 0.085 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS 0.866 0.736 0.077 0.053 Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply) 0.869 0.795 0.041 0.033 Atlanta Gas Light 0.871 0.679 0.162 0.031 Connecticut Natural Gas 0.876 0.763 0.101 0.012 Washington Natural Gas 0.890 0.752 0.137 0.001 People's Natural Gas 0.895 0.660 0.182 0.054 Peco (Philadelphia Electric) 0.897 0.615 0.237 0.045 North Shore Gas 0.899 0.589 0.211 0.099 Wisconsin Gas 0.905 0.664 0.214 0.027 COMMONWEALTH GAS 0.912 0.701 0.185 0.026 BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO 0.913 0.810 0.160 -0.057 new Jersey Natural Gas 0.915 0.722 0.204 -0.011 Rochester Gas and Electric 0.932 0.398 0.378 0.155 Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water) 0.936 0.400 0.403 0.132 Orange & Rockland Utilities 0.939 0.576 0.297 0.066 Illinois Power 0.948 0.672 0.238 0.038 Southwest Gas 0.951 0.488 0.355 0.108 Northwest Natural Gas 0.959 0.631 0.313 0.015 Louisville Gas and Electric 0.965 0.649 0.340 -0.024 Madison Gas & Electric 0.976 0.511 0.418 0.047 Connecticut Energy 0.993 0.456 0.445 0.091 Alabama Gas 1.005 0.514 0.440 0.050 Public Service of North Carolina 1.012 0.391 0.529 0.092 Wisconsin Power & Light 1.036 0.025 0.733 0.279 Cascade Natural Gas 1.041 0.239 0.679 0.124 Central Hudson Gas 1.052 0.505 0.521 0.026 SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC